I write this as someone who has no dog in the fight except to see a democrat win...
I think Barack can get a mandate. Hillary cannot. And I think that a Democrat needs a mandate to achieve the changes necessary to fix all the damage that has been done.
But Barack has to prove two things to Democratic voters in order to overcome Hillary's inherent advantages.
He has to prove he can connect INDIVIDUALLY and EMOTIONALLY with voters.
He has to prove that he has a system for processing intellectual issues and acting on them in ways that are emotionally compelling.
More on this below...
Barack's speeches soar. Particularly when he invokes historical archetypes and images. But he is MUCH LESS strong when he tells individual stories of difficulty and tragedy. This is Edwards' great skill as a former trial lawyer. Barack has to find a way to tell the story of the mill worker with no health insurance or the grocery checker whose A-student kid can't afford college or the waitress whose husband is doing his fourth tour in Iraq in a compelling and immediate way. This is especially true of his need to relate to Women. Call it the Oprahfication of Barack. He must become more of a populist.
The thing Bill Clinton impressed people with was his ability to move from Wonk to Orator and back. Actually, his speeches at the beginning were over long and short on poetry but got better over time. Bubba is at heart a wonk. Barack, it seems, is at heart an orator. But in order to convince us he can handle the job, he needs to demonstrate an ability to process the issues with intellectual specificity while retaining his wit and while also seguing into his emotional connection to the issue. Kennedy was a natural master of this. Clinton became one.
I believe that Barack can get there. But can he get there in time?